MOgreland

A quick update on the situation in Ukraine.

My niece in San Diego, California posted a link to a news story on her Facebook, and started a short conversation there about what is going on with Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe. Since a few interesting comments were made there, I thought I'd cut that and paste it here, to go with what I will be posting later this week as a commentary on the matter.

I just want to remind you what the point I am trying to make is:

In the science fiction world that I am setting my up-coming stories in, the alternate-history is such that global empires including an allied United Kingdom/United States, Russia, Japan, and others exists where Colonialization in Africa and Asia is still common, just like in much of the Nineteenth Century.

That sort of My-Empire-Is-Better-Than-Your-Empire thinking is what ultimately led to the Great War (for us, World Wars I & II) and looks a lot like what is happening now with Russia and Ukraine, to speak nothing of what is happening in Southeast Asia with China, Japan, South Korea, and don't forget Russian interests there all jostling, plus all that is going on with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran relatively close by. Then of course, there is still Iraq, Syria and our relationship with Israel, and don't forget everything happening in Egypt, Libya, etc. Plus what are the Saudi's doing? And don't forget the ongoing turmoils in Africa, or the same in South America.

Sound familiar?

The point is this: Some people think that the devolution of international politics since the Cold War between essentially just two world superpowers and their allies is leading to a world much like the Nineteenth Century that led up to two incredibly devastating world wars, that is to say a world in which chaos reigns, no one nation or group of nations is capable of enforcing and protecting global peace, or of even recommending it without cynicism and mockery, and in which not just minor, local and/or regional powers are constantly at war, but everyone is all the time.

Is the clear Russian invasion of Ukraine, after their defense of the self-genocidal regime in Syria and their similar war in Georgia in 2008, just one more sign that the international order is collapsing, only to fail in the end? Quite frankly, I don't know, but for my childrens' sakes, I am very, very worried.

I've read and heard many suggestions about how to deal with the problem, from the implausible "We should just let Britain, France, etc., have their old empires back and rule over everyone with an iron fist," to the current Obama Administration's policy of standing back and letting other, politically and militarily weaker states be in the front lines of whatever happens, whatever happens. I haven't seen a single suggestion that sounds like it would work. Have you?  

If so, where does that leave our children and their children? What of their future?

Here follows the conversation that my niece started:

At 10 p.m., Russia Will Deliver An All-Out "Military Storm" Against Ukraine
"If they do not surrender ... a real assault will be started against units and divisions of the armed forces across Crimea."
http://www.policymic.com/articles/84107/at-10-p-m-russia-will-deliver-an-all-out-military-storm-against-ukraine?utm_source=policymicFB&utm_medium=main&utm_campaign=social

Christopher N. Carroll 

Sux. I'm gonna make a longish comment on all this here on my new blog, but I gotta say that this may be an incredibly important moment for the future for anyone under 25 years of age:

1) Will we be facing a new era of Cold War, or even Hot War? Especially if you consider in Europe it will be Russia and Germany face to face, and in Asia it's looking like Japan vs. China again; and

2) The last time the world was shown to be so weak and ineffective at preserving peace, Japan walked out of the League of Nations, which caused the Pacific War, in what we call World War II.

The U.S. is already dangerously weak in terms of the sort of international prestige needed to uphold the position of Leader of the Free World; the U.N. is pretty useless outside of humanitarian aid, and that often is ineffective. What happens if Russia is pushed to the sidelines by kicking it out of the G8? What happens if Russia, in its proven drive to expansionism (Georgia 2008, now Ukraine 2014), breaks the U.N.?

Magan Hall 

I was going to put a caption on the article, but decided not to. I am seeing high similarities in the tactics of Putin with Stalin and Hitler. defying international law, wanting the "Russian speaking parts of Ukraine" to start taking territories, and also the Ukraine is unique in that it has the natural gas source for Europe, so if Putin obtains the Ukraine, then he can influence Europe's teetering economy through natural gas right? The world is issuing economic isolation, but wouldn't Putin be expecting that? I think Putin is ready to launch WWIII if that's what it takes. Maybe that's a bold statement and I'm no international relations wiz, but it seems like such a ruthless move on Putin's part

Christopher N. Carroll 

I doubt he's looking forward to a World War, but he is certainly willing to take a risk to expand Russian influence and power. He is wanting Russia to be as strong as the Soviet Union was at its height (remember: he was and always will be KGB!) Look into what happened in the Russia-Georgia War of 2008 to see what is possible.

Brian Young 

And who was mocked for their statements about Russia and them being the biggest geopolitical threat?

Christopher N. Carroll 

I was just looking up some data on some of the proposed combat vehicle programs for the U.S. Army and Marines (which have been killed or all but killed) because of the news this week, corresponding with the Russia-Ukraine Crisis, that Defense Secretary Hagel was justifying cuts to our military as only part of a smaller American military presence. He is quoted as saying: "U.S. Military Must Shrink To Face 'More Unpredictable' World" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/24/chuck-hagel-military_n_4849677.html) How exactly do you prepare for anything by cutting the personnel in the armed forces some 40-50%, and budgets such that equipment programs such as combat vehicles are only provided with enough funds to close the programs down? ( http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140115/NEWS05/301150035/Ground-combat-vehicle-budget-slashed-cancellation-more-likely) And the other side of the political equation is equally stupid: Avoid getting involved? (http://personalliberty.com/2014/03/03/hagels-defense-cuts-are-smoke-and-mirrors/) Explain that to the countries we have treaties with promising them that we will support and defend them. Didn't 9/11 prove we are not invulnerable on our own shores? Hiding can't help us now. This is the kind of trouble you get into when you live in an era of lack of leadership.

As I posted last on her Facebook, I think that by Wednesday, 5 March 2014 we ought to see how far Putin will take things, and we can then decide if we are looking at a watershed moment that will define the course of international relations in the next century!

Remember: The real issue here is whether or not The West, led by the United States on one hand and driven (or not) by the United Nations on the other, will have any credibility and strength to act when this is all said and done. It really won't take long, as the five-day Russia-Ukraine War in 2008 proved. The West, already dreadfully weakened by iffy wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and by a painful lack of doing anything at all substantial during crises in Africa, the Middle East during the 'Arab Spring,' and in Syria, is positioned badly if they fail here.

As they used to say, 'Stay Tuned!'

More to come.

Updated: 5:55 p.m., Tuesday, 4 March 2014:

Thankfully, Russia did not in fact stage a full-scale military invasion of Crimea and Ukraine at 10:00 p.m., Ukraine time, on Monday, 3 March 2014. However, nothing else has changed much since. The situation is still tense and it still looks like The West has few viable options to play. How will this turn out, and what will happen next? As they say, Stay Tuned.